[brianmarc]

Talk about debating how many angels can danceon the head of a pin! Elegant as this analysis is, it's essentially irrelevant since the error estimate in each supposition is so great that the standard error will totally oblitertae the value of the single, determinsitic point estimate decision you have to make. The only way this kind of analysis can be of anything but academic value is in the event that you get to face this decision repeatedly so that your large number of trials give you a chance to benefit from the value added of the analysis. So I conclude that the only times this kind of micro-analysis is justified is for situations that occur frequently (e.g., overcards on th flop; small pocket pairs) In fact, this discussion reminds me of a succinct bit of Sklanksy wisdom (cannot recall source) in wich he castigates 2+2'ers for obsessing over intersting but rare hands at the expense of more common situations. Barron has, in this post, perfectly illustrated this fault.