Re: Call
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Just wanted to step in and say I really dont think this is a fold here. I am not sure and a bunch of good players in succession just leaned towards fold but I really doubt it. Maybe I will try to do some math later while I pack for the Bahammas.
I think if anything, the gutshot outs keep u in there. You guys are overestimating the times a higher draw is out there IMO. It has to be pretty often to make this a fold.
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im glad this thread came back b/c i was, so far as i can tell from here, wrong.
after thinking about this in terms of hand values on the flop, what does the pfr have?
most often it is AQ/AK type hands that missed, followed AJ/pair type hands, followed by other high card hands KQ/ATs/ATo even(some that may have a diamond that he just cont.bet with). he may have JJ or 66, however given the following action that is less likely.
both players cold called 2 after the pfr opened. JJ is unlikely, however QJ/JT/J9/J8 (suited or unsuited) are most likely frmo these raisers. then comes the 66 and 22 from the 2nd and 3rd pf cold caller. against them, we have a strong spot, but their redraws and cards that kill our draws hurt. what sux for us also here is that the J isn't a diamond, amking those that have a jack going to the river in almost all cicumstances if we hit the diamond and def. calling the river bet if it's out there and it almost certainly is given the action.
so those are the combinations that seem by far the most likely both hand range wise and combinatorically.
the real question i think we have to ask ourselves here now is whether we can increase our equity relatively more by capping than by cold calling. i.e. will the pfr or first raiser fold hands for 3 or 2 more bets that they'd call for 2 or 1 more bets. in the case of the pfr i think he's pretty much otuta here w/o a solid hand. if he has a solid hand, he's not folding for 3 and calling for 2.
the first raiser is the main swing vote for capping here. JT doesn't look so good right now, and neither does QJ or any of those jack (with or without) a diamond in there. getting some dead money in the pot is a big advantage and increases our equity alot (both due to increased pot odds and increased probability of winning the pot/paying less to see the draw on future streets...which brings up turn action but we'll get to that in a sec).
so if we can get one of them out we should probably put the other bet in. either way our hand is pretty exposed.
capping and betting the turn may get expensive in that you've now given the option to open the action upa lot to those who put in a lot of it on the flop. if you cap to try to get guys out and they stay, checking the turn (depending on what it is) mayb e best.
so jesse, i think you're right that it's closer to a cap than a fold, and overall i think a call is best.
i still haven't done the math, and im not going to due to laziness. but logic here so far says this is a call and i was wrong in my initial post.
in terms of preflop...wow...that is a simple ass call and it isn't even remotely close.
this is a profitable preflop call if the pf raiser opens, ONE person calls and it's folded to you getting 5.5:1 on your call. if you fold, you've lost a small bet. if you call, you'll likely earn on averave more than 1.2-1.5 bets netting you .2-.5 small bets in expectation. i could open up poker tracker and mess around to find out what those type of hands have shown inf ull ring limit games but it's almost my bedtime and i've put enough into this post for now.
needless to say, insults, while fun and definitely entertaining, dont get us anywhere analytically. that said, brian dude, you are way out of your league here if your issue with this hand is the pre flop call. i hope the analysis above is enough for you.
Barron
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