[koolmoe]

I think one thing that may be missing in the analysis is that the difference in score after the two-point conversion will greatly influence the offensive and defensive strategy of the opposing team. Most coaches seem to play very conservatively and predictably when ahead by 7 or more, but would be more aggressive when ahead by 6. The players may also lack a sense of urgency when they do not sense the immediate danger of losing. On defense, the behavior is similar, and it seems much easier for teams to move the ball on the opposing defense when trying to tie the game as opposed to taking the lead.

Even so, the math reveals that the two decisions are close enough that the impact on a season will be almost irrelevant. While a coach should still be aware of what the math says, fans (including the mathematical types) ought to acknowledge that the job of a head coach goes far beyond gametime decisions. The impact of such decisions are simply magnified since most of the real work of a coaching staff occurs during the week and behind the scenes. Even if you found the best in-game decision* maker as a coach, it is unlikely that he would have an edge over the coach that had assembled the best talent, or the coach that designed the best game plan.

*By decision I mean strategic decisions like, should I go for it on 4th down, should I go for the two point conversion, should we try a surprise onside kick, etc. and not decisions like whether to play cover 2, blitz, run over the left side of the offensive line, etc.