[Scorpion Man]

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celiboy,

Unless you are moving to Thailand or the pan handle of Texas, you are way off the mark. Maybe you are forgetting inflation or perhaps a downturn in income or overstating your ROI?

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I'm using 8% return during my earning years and in retirement I'm forecasting 4% return. 3% inflation for all years. I have best/worst/probable case scenarios as well. I live in Canada, so one big cost we do not have to factor in is medical/health insurance. My house is paid off in full and right now my monthly nut is $1300 a month so I guess I don't spend as much as other people. Most people die with significant $ left over. I'd rather retire early rather then work until 65 blindly.

Someone already mentioned the earlyretirement forum and I've learned alot from that - some very good info on there.

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ANy of you guys students of the markets? Do you realize that between 1966 and 1982 (that is almost a lifetime for many on these boards) the dow was FLAT in nominal terms and DOWN 40% in real terms? That is was down 90% (yes, that is not a typo) from 1929-1933? That the NDX was down 80% 00-mid 03? That long bonds were down 20-25% in 1994? Anyone here actually had to manage a portfolio and LIVE on it? Models don't pay bills. And drawdowns are MAJOR problems when you are living off the cash flow. Retiring and NEEDING 8% per year to hit your spending is insane. And people are way underreserving for inflation -- its at least 3% of whatever return you are getting. Education and healthcare, 2 major expenses, have gone up much faster than that for years.