[solinar]

Your missing the variability of variability though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You are assuming you always play your average opponent. In order to have an average opponent, you must play vs some opponents where your winrate is higher than normal, and vs some opponents where it is lower than normal. Sometimes, in a given sample, you will end up playing more tough opponents, and your sample winrate has a good chance at being lower than normal. During this sample, your chance at going bust due to variance is much higher than your normal chance. Since you only need to go bust once, this is what you have to plan for.