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Old 01-09-2007, 03:46 PM
Absolution Absolution is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
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Default Re: Firing the Second Barrel (long)

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what is the game-theory correct amount to river bluff? Is is the amount that makes you think I'm enough of a LAG that you'll give me free river cards and pay off my value bets every time?

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Wookie is referring to a couple of chapters in _Theory of Poker_. You should really read it, but a short illustration:

You are HU on the river with a hand that can only beat a bluff (like A-high). Your opponent bets. The pot lays 4:1. You should call if your opponent is bluffing more than 1/5 times; otherwise, you should fold. If your opponent bluffs exactly 1/5 times, then you can never make the optimal play on the river -- no mater what you do, you lose according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

The real situation is somewhat more complicated, but i think i got the basics correct.

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I have read TOP. I'm asking in this particular case. I'm just trying to generate discussion. In your case you don't lose anything, you break even. If you have an opponent who thinks you are a LAG and will check raise him on the turn often, he might try to induce a bet from you on the river. If you know what he is up to, your correct bluffing frequency is 0. The problem is, he should catch on to this so you have to bluff just enough to keep him doing this.
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