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Old 01-08-2007, 02:41 PM
Iamthegreatest Iamthegreatest is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 9
Default Re: Mirage 20/40 - Is waiting to raise the river here a mistake?

Okay here’s my thought process for what it’s worth. It seems everyone is advocating that I should have been a lot more aggressive but this isn’t an online hand (I am an online player though). People in this game are actually able to fold. Especially the player I was up against:

SB went 3 bets preflop. Given my read on him (i.e. probably semi-pro) I give him a big hand, AA, KK or AK…maybe QQ (but not as likely). Flop comes down KT6, UTG bets, I have mid set in a 4 way 4 bet preflop pot, I raise now to induce as much action as I can from AA, AK or worse kings (pretty straightforward). SB check 3 bets. UTG calls. I call planning to raise the turn. Turn 6. Check. Check. Obviously the turn check is strange but I’m never checking behind here ever. I bet. Now the SB check raises again. UTG folds. I only call…

The reason I do this is because if I go three bets there’s no hand that I can beat that’s going to call me. If I reraise, all worse hands are folding and better hands are going 4 bets or if he’s really smart he’s smooth calling then check raising or even leading the river. This guy, given my read on him and his preflop 3 bet, does not have A6, K6, T6 or even 66 (hands which could call if I 3 bet). The only hands he can have that make sense given his actions are AA, KK or AK (he’s twice as likely to have AA over KK since there’s a king on board). Since he’ll only be getting 17.5 to 1 to call a 3 bet this means if he has AA or AK he’s folding (maybe some donkeys would be stupid enough to call but “this guy” is not calling with those hands if I reraise in this situation). So I decided to simply call the check raise and then wait to raise the river. This way I gain 1 extra bet minimum if he checks and calls, or maybe even 2 bets if he fires again on the river and then makes a crying call when I raise.

My friend’s argument was that on the turn you have to punish hands that are behind. But in this case I’m not really punishing any hand that’s behind because any hand that’s behind that this guy could have is folding if I raise. I think the only argument that can be made for going 3 bets on the turn is that, given the size of the pot, something can be said for just taking it down right then and there. When the pot gets big your main concern should be trying to take it down and not worrying about earning extra bets. However, against the two hands drawing live against me, AA and AK, both hands each only have 2 outs against me, so I don’t really care that much about letting him see one more card. If the guy was a complete maniac which would change his range or if he was an idiot who I knew was incapable of folding when beat then things might be different but this wasn’t the case.

Finally, someone at the table commented that given the action: SB3bet, flop check 3 bet, turn check raise that it should have been obvious that the guy had KK? I’m sorry but I think that’s ridiculous. In my experience I think a lot of people would play AA or even AK the exact same way (and again it’s twice as likely he has AA over KK since there’s a king on board). I might take this line with AA or maybe even AK depending on the lineup.
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