[johnc]

Ok I'll take a stab at the math as I see it. If (a big IF) your reads are correct, and 600 hands is really not alot to make potential stack risking descisions on from an implied odds standpoint (I have found it's often times VERY difficult to get even the dumbest players to risk their stacks w/TP on a flush board vs a caller, just my observation).

Here goes: He's got aces so you're beat unless you hit. I'll assume you'll give up on the river if you miss given that a bluff here has very little chance of winning.
Villain has $21.05, you've got him covered and he'll call your river push if you hit.

Your EV is:

<Jamma> = (36/44)(-$4.50) + (1-36/44)($21.05 + $4.50) - $4.5 = (0.8181)(-$4.50) + (0.1818)($25.55) - $4.50= $4.64 - $3.68 - $4.50 = -$3.54

Your average EV for making this turn call is -$3.54.

Please feel free to comment/point out issues if anyone feels these calcs are off or not correct, given the circumstances.