Re: How much luck is involved in hu nlc?
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Does that mean that there's a very small chance of a 65% winner losing 7 or LESS games in a row? In other words, it's likely for a 65% winner to lose 7+ games in a row at some point during a 100 stretch? I'm probably reading it wrong!
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Yes. There are a few things that explain why this is counter intuitive. First, as discussed in "Freakenomics" and elsewhere, most people vastly underestimate the probability of long streaks. Second, I did use some minor approximations, but the answers should change very little. Third, you will run into some fish where you are almost the stone cold nuts to win. This decreases the probability of having a streak.
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