Six months later...
Here is a repost of something I wrote on UPF to a couple people who were discussing this post.
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When I wrote this, I had no idea it would still be quoted six months hence. It was a specific plea for the specific players who posted on the Microlimit forum in January to stop folding hands like top pair or an overpair for one bet on the turn (often not even a raise... just a single bet) in huge (bigger than ten bet) pots simply because "I figured I had to be beaten somewhere." They were drawing totally irrational conclusions about the quality of their opponents' hands, and then making ridiculous and VERY expensive folds based on those conclusions.
The main problem these guys had was "Monsters Under the Bed" syndrome. They constantly overestimated the quality of their opponents' hands, and that left them always feeling like they were either drawing against a ton of outs if ahead, or drawing almost dead if behind. They didn't understand that people can bet weak hands and draws strongly sometimes... and that when the pot is big, you simply cannot allow yourself to be knocked off a good hand by someone with a weak draw.
If you have specific, credible evidence that your opponents in fact DO have the hands you fear, then fine... fold. My point is only that you really do need excellent evidence... don't just assume that you have to be beaten or someone (but I don't know who) simply MUST have had a flush draw.
Finally, a single turn bet is almost never specific, credible evidence. People screw around with turn bets (as opposed to turn 3-bets) all the time. Just because you raised the flop, and now they bet into you again on the turn, does NOT mean overwhelming strength.
BTW, I appreciate that you find my post thought-provoking. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Ed
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