Re: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets thread
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I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone comment on one of the biggest game-changing plays of this game.
I'm talking about the end of the Jets opening drive of the 2nd half. The Jets had the ball inside the 3 yard line, less than 2 to go on 4th down. They trailed by 7. And they kicked a FG??? Not only was this easily -EV from a points perspective, but the situation made it 10 times worse. The value of a TD was easily more than 2.333 times greater than the value of a FG. even if the Jets fail to get the 1st down or TD, they would barely be in worse shape with the Pats pinned at the 2 yd line up 7 than they would have been kicking off trailing by 4.
this decision IMO kept the Jets from ever really threatening. I'm shocked that so bad a call hasn't been brought up by anyone else either here, at FO, or anywhere else I've checked.
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If the Patriots were in the same spot, it would've been a bad call kicking the field goal. But the Jets simply don't have a real running back. Kicking the field goal was the right move with this team.
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okay, so what would the break even success rate be, in your opinion?
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