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Old 01-07-2007, 06:27 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
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Default Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Im not so sure. A turn check-raise by a semiLAG really means something big, i. e. two pair or better. On the contrary, a donk wouldnt mean that much, but this is a check-raise.
Which makes this a fold IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the c/r means that we have no more than 3 outs (i.e. Villan has AA/QQ/66/33/AK/AQ) then, yes, this is a fold. Given how laggro Vill is preflop, you HAVE to reduce that to a set of 6s or 3s because anything else gets 3-bet from the blinds, or donkbet on either the flop or turn.

Weighting outs (combo, combinations, outs, weighted outs):

66, 3, 0, 0
33, 3, 0, 0
A6, 9, 6, 1
A3, 9, 7.5, 1.3
Q6, 9, 8, 1.4
Q3, 9, 8, 1.4
63, 9, 8, 1.4

Total = 6.5

Between implied odds for your outs, and some non-zero percentage of the time that you're ahead on the turn, this is an easy call. Realize that you probably can't call another bet on the river, tho, and depending on the card you may not want to bet it yourself if checked to (that's why we don't have to worry about complicated calcs to reduce our outs for the straight or flush hitting).

I'd also like to point out that there's a critter that you'll find starting around 1/2, but not so much below that: the LAG-TAG. This guy plays a lot of hands strongly preflop, but then becomes really hard to read postflop because he will play hard with ANY part of the board, but give up with none of it (it's hard because you don't know how much of the board he hit). I'm not saying this is that guy, but this is what his stats would look like (maybe a bit higher VPIP, but not a lot). If this is that guy you're better off checking behind on the turn and calling one on the river.
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