Re: AJ off - man i hate that hand.
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It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
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My first instinct here was to call down. You guys are makign some valid points as to why a fold would be ok. However, Jaxup is right, .86 in a vacuum could mean a lot of things. A read would do wonders for this hand.
Another thing is you have a lot more outs than 3. If he flopped A3 two pair you'll have 6 outs. (I forgot to figure in the Q kicker and originally thought A3 would give us 9 outs. Hidden outs are tricky!) Hidden outs of the board pairing gives us these extra outs. For instance, if the 6 or Q pairs on the river, we win since it counterfeits his lower two pair. If we hit our jack we win as well.
If he hit his two pair A6 on the turn we have 6 outs for the same reason. If he had AQ or a set we're done.
edit: this was said above, but whatever
So while we potentially have a decent amount of outs the next question is "is this pot worth it?" Its 5.25bb after the check raise. We'll have to put in two more bets to win 7bb so 7:2. Thats a pretty small profit margin if it exists. I think you can fold in this, but if there was a read we could play this more confidently. Make reads guys, dont use PT as a crutch.
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