[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
Believe me, I make this mistake all the time, but this is 2 bets we are talking about here......this could be our profit for the next 100 hands we are pissing away.

If this guy had a big post flop aggression factor I would consider calling down, but 200 hands is a good enough sample for me to believe his .8.

I'll eat my hat if OP shows us that he called down and his hand held up.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's). The only set he could reasonably have is 33, since AA and QQ three-ball it preflop and he'd likely fold 66 to the flop bet. We're also winning if he has a worse ace — not terribly likely, but possible, since AT is definitely in his range.

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.