[Ansky]

"EDIT: perhaps there is one more subset of cases that could make check-calling more viable, and that is if your opponent has a made hand that he'd fold to a bet by you, but value bet himself if you check.....that type of thinking IMO is really only applicable in very rare situations (usually in super-meta-game spots against good thinking players who are very familiar with you and vice versa)....I don't think that applies here given your descriptions.....I don't think villain folds Ax often enough, relative to the number of times he'll check it vs. value bet it....."

I think most of us would agree that the VAST majority of opponents will call more than they will bet here, yes?