Re: commerce 20/40NL
hi rbk,
I don't completely understand the question....there are two separate issues here:
1) are you asking whether you should be willing to fold here?...if that is the question, my answer is absolutely not....getting 3-to-1 on the river I think you have enough of a price to call based on the number of non-fullhouse hands he could have....and also, if you legitimately think you have a tough decision here, then you should've raised more on the turn...
2) or are you saying you ARE committed to your hand, but are asking what the best way to proceed is?......well, if you are committed to calling a bet 100 percent of the time, then you are better of betting yourself if there are worse hands that he'll check behind some percentage of the time (Ax, etc.).....
the only way check-calling is better is if somehow it is more likely for him to have a missed draw that he'll bluff with rather than a worse made hand.....that doesn't appear to be the case here.....
-S
EDIT: perhaps there is one more subset of cases that could make check-calling more viable, and that is if your opponent has a made hand that he'd fold to a bet by you, but value bet himself if you check.....that type of thinking IMO is really only applicable in very rare situations (usually in super-meta-game spots against good thinking players who are very familiar with you and vice versa)....I don't think that applies here given your descriptions.....I don't think villain folds Ax often enough, relative to the number of times he'll check it vs. value bet it.....
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