Re: boxing question
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The part you are missing is that the difference between the over (-231) and the combination of the props (-274) is much smaller than it looks. -231 translates to 69.8% of outcomes while -274 translates to 73.3%. That's only a difference of 3.5%. Around 1% of that represents a KO in the last minute and a half, and the other part is mostly due the fact that the props simply pay worse odds.
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This is the much larger portion, and often can account for almost the entire difference.
On books other than Pinny, the juice is usually much larger, and you could easily see an Over of -240 and a combination of decisions and draws that would be between -300 and -400, or possibly even worse, solely based on the juice they charge for props and single outcomes.
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