Re: commerce 20/40NL
What is up with his really weak $900 turn bet? What do you read it for?
In most instances, I would simply go all-in on the turn. But if the $900 turn bet is read as weak, I put him on an AQ/AK type of hand. In this case, he might think he's inducing a check-raise steal from a lag and I like this $2000 more amount...leaving a good chunk more to "hang yourself" with at the river. He probably couldn't handle an all-in check-raise with a read that he is weak.
Based on how this played, I do not believe he has two pair or a set on the turn. Villian would probably push back due to the draw-heavy nature of this board. If he has KQ, you were already screwed. Chalk one cooler back in his column.
River is fairly simple. I'd push expecting a call from any A. The river A is the nail in the coffin for him. You simply cannot give him a chance to check behind any kind of A. I do not believe there is nearly enough value in inducing any sort of improbable river bluff. You didn't really mention too much about his aggressiveness. You said he "calls too much". Give him that final chance.
Garland
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