Re: boxing question
The part you are missing is that the difference between the over (-231) and the combination of the props (-274) is much smaller than it looks. -231 translates to 69.8% of outcomes while -274 translates to 73.3%. That's only a difference of 3.5%. Around 1% of that represents a KO in the last minute and a half, and the other part is mostly due the fact that the props simply pay worse odds.
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