Re: 15/30 AK
Hi busted,
I like the style in which you post - you are here to learn and you are explaining your reasons quite well. That said, you have a couple ideas that are wrong and hopefully I can point them out and say why they are wrong.
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hero has pots odds of 9 BB/2 BB = 4.5:1 if he raises
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But if he is better than a 4.5:1 underdog with the further discounting, then the turn raise is still justified.
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This is not how pot odds work. Pot odds are there to answer the question "should I call this bet or should I fold?" Your counting of outs and subsequent math look dead on to me, and you have answered the question of "should we call on the turn?" getting 9:1 of course the answer is yes.
But now if you want to ask "should I raise?" you can throw pot odds out the window and instead focus only on pot equity. You did that calculation as well but did not apply it - you calculated us to have 29.3% pot equity on the turn - with 3 opponents you have made an argument for raising for value. The problem with this is that all of your opponents would need to call your raise, and you would need to be correct about the number of outs that you have for this raise to be correct. Both contribute to the raise not being as much for value as it might first appear in my opinion.
There is more I am sure, but I wanted to clarify this difference between pot odds and pot equity and when to apply each.
-DeathDonkey
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