Re: 15/30 AK
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Where I'm coming from was best stated by Sklansky in ToP in a section titled "Raising to Drive Out Opponents": "When you raise to get people out, what you are really doing is raising to cut down their odds. ... In so doing, you have created a situation where the player may make a mistake, according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, by either calling or folding. Even when he folds correctly after you raise because he is getting insufficient pot odds to call a double bet, you certainly prefer that to his calling an unraised pot correctly and proceeding to outdraw you and win the pot." (p. 125)
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Busted, it's cool that you did so much research on your reply. Oftentimes I'd rather see an incorrect but well thought out reply over one that is more correct but doesn't provide any reasoning.
Having said that, your interpretation of Sklansky's comments are being misapplied. The person who does not have odds to put money in the pot here is hero, and he is making a FTOP mistake by raising.
If there were a chance the he could either win this pot unimproved or could buy enough outs to justify the raise, then it might be ok, but in this case there is no chance of winning UI and the only possible outs for you to buy are possibly 2 outs if you get AJ or KJ to fold (and technically AQ and KQ but they're never folding). And all of this assumes you're not already only drawing to 9 (or 8) outs.
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