Thread: 15/30 AK
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Old 02-08-2006, 03:58 PM
busted busted is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 44
Default Re: 15/30 AK

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I think the debate about overcalls is secondary. I agree with the raise on the flop. But IMO, a major mistake was made on the turn by calling a single bet and not raising. On the turn, the pot is big (9 BB so far) and you've now got a nut flush draw in addition to the nut straight draw. You've got to protect this hand and try to drive opponents out. I'd have raised the turn. You'd create a difficult decision for both LMP and SB to CC 2 bets, given the pot odds and number of opponents. With BB's hesitation on the river, he may have folded a raise on the turn, too. You definitely don't want to give 3 opponents another draw on the river to beat you -- without paying a price.

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What exactly are we protecting? We have a draw, not a made hand. Raising not only makes others pay for their draws, it makes us pay for our own draw. It's also highly unlikely that we're gonna fold 3 players in a pot this big.

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I guess you think that the concept of "protecting your hand" only applies to made hands, and not to other types of "strong" hands containing: (1) flush draws, (2) OESDs, or (3) other strong drawing hands that have 8+ discounted outs from a combination of gutshot draw, overcards, and/or backdoor straight or flush draws.

Where I'm coming from was best stated by Sklansky in ToP in a section titled "Raising to Drive Out Opponents": "When you raise to get people out, what you are really doing is raising to cut down their odds. ... In so doing, you have created a situation where the player may make a mistake, according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, by either calling or folding. Even when he folds correctly after you raise because he is getting insufficient pot odds to call a double bet, you certainly prefer that to his calling an unraised pot correctly and proceeding to outdraw you and win the pot." (p. 125)

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I honestly can't see a turn raise as anything but spewing. Two players behind you have CCed a flop raise, so a flopped flush draw behind you is definiately possible, and you cannot fold to a 3bet. THREE other players have shown interst in the hand to the tune of two bets on the flop, I cannot imagine you will win this hand UI no matter what you do. This is a pure drawing situation, and you need to hit your draw as cheaply as possible, since you are never winning the hand unless you make something on the river.

It seems to me that you'd want to protect a made hand with one card to come, not a draw since you are never cleaning up any outs here.

jvs

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I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. Regarding playing strong draws in multiway pots, SSHE advises: "In multiway pots, play strong draws aggressively. Eliminating opponents often improves your chance to win" (p. 144) Also, "When the pot is big, how should you play a flush or straight draw with overcards to the board? You should protect those hands." (p. 324)
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