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Old 12-21-2006, 05:24 PM
Bob T. Bob T. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Shakopee, MN
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Default Re: AA faces turn c/r, 3/6

Lets assume his checkraise is for value. He can be ahead of you three ways, Two pair, a set, or a 9 for a straight.

If he has two pair, you have 8 outs.

If he has a set, you have 2 outs to a win, and four to a chop.

If he has a 9 without a queen, you have 3 outs to a chop, and if he has Q9, you have zero outs.

It is also possible that he has a one pair hand, and is playing you for AK, or trying to get you to lay down your overpair.

Or he could be semibluffing two dimamonds, especially if he had a pair, and AQ, and KQ both give him open ended straight draws.

There are 6 Big bets in the pot, and effectively, you are getting 7 to 2 to call this down. If you are behind, the only way you get those odds, are if your opponent holds two pair.

So the question is, how likely is it that you are ahead now, and he is drawing to somewhere between 2 and 15 outs? I think you look at his aggression factor, where he is moderately passive, and decide that it is more likely that he is value betting here, and let go of this hand. It was prettty preflop, but when a mostly passive player raises you on the turn on a coordinated board, your hand isn't so attractive anymore.

If you chose to call it down, I wouldn't blame you, but I think that you will be shown a winner too often to make this call profitable.
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