Re: 15/30 AK
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the way the hand was played, I'm not too concerned about a flush.
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What in the play of the hand leads you to that conclusion?
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Why would he bet into the PFR on the flop with a flush draw?
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Because of the principle: "if you are going to call a bet, it is better to bet yourself"? What if the BB held 10d9d? That would mean he had 15 outs = about 60% equity. 8d7d? 9 outs = roughly 36% equity.
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LMP and SB would have to be quite foolish not to raise their flush on the turn
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Why? There was a bettor and a raiser on the flop indicating someone might hold a pair, so it seems reasonable to me that one of those players would bet the turn to prevent any single diamond holding from getting a free card to make a flush on the river.
So, how do you analyze that hand beyond "I think this.."?
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