[WackityWhiz]

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I think the +3.5 is huge here. I have the true line at Cincy -1.

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WTF?

C'mon. You either have the worst unit system ever created for are kidding yourself.

Kelly says this is a >20% of bankroll play if you capping is correct. From this we can draw one of two conclusions: 1) You have a greater than 30% ROI and are choosing to pass this up for who knows why. 2) Your line is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're going to use Kelly then you better make sure it's fractional. Lets say this game is a true Bengals win 52% of the time. If you risk 20% of your bankroll on a 52% true odds play then you're going to go broke 2.55% of the time (an 0-5 streak). Not to mention that the other situations in which you don't win don't put you in a good position. 20% on a true odds ~52% is never the right choice.

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What if I think the true line is Cincy -10? Do I just go arrrr eeeen

ARRRR EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN