Re: The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down
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I got into a big debate on the Romer paper as alot of his assumptions just seemed outlandish to me, much as the assumptions here, in the OP, are ridiculous IMO.
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I don't think the assumptions in the OP are ridiculous. Why would going for 2 when down by 14 be ridiculous if it improves your chances of winning the game?
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did you read the assumptions?
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Assume a two point attempt is 42%, a one point attempt is 98%, overtime is a 50-50 proposition, and there is time for one more score at best.
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it's been shown that a one-point attempt is higher than 98%. It's also strongly argued that OT is not a 50-50 proposition. One also has to wonder whether 42% is a sustainable rate in a NFL where the 2-point play becomes more expected and a part of defensive plans.
Also, if a team misses the 2 the first time, do you still think they are 42% the second time?
Football isn't some independent trial game and trying to reduce it to that is an insult to the game. This isn't craps.
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