Interesting bit of data from KC Joyner via ESPN insider:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...amp;id=2696061
Most pundits are pointing to the Colts' run defense as the reason this team has lost three of its last four games, but the Indianapolis offense isn't exactly holding its own. This unit has scored fewer than 20 points in four of the last five games.
The first reason this group is struggling is because Peyton Manning is taking a much more conservative approach in his passing game over the past few weeks. I tracked the Colts' pass depth distribution, starting with the Buffalo game in Week 10 through the first half of Sunday's game at Jacksonville. I excluded the second half of the game against the Jaguars, because the Colts were in comeback mode after falling behind 31-10 early in the third quarter. Here are the percentages of each type of pass for that period:
Short: 62.6
Medium: 18.4
Deep: 12.9
Compare those figures with the percentages for this season and the previous two seasons:
Peyton Manning
Depth 2004 2005 2006
Short 58.8 55.6 52.9
Medium 22.7 23.8 25.4
Deep 15.1 13.9 15.9
So why is Manning becoming more conservative? Simply put, he doesn't have as many vertical receiving options. To illustrate what I mean, here are the metrics this year for the No. 3 receivers, Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley:
Wide Receivers
Player Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen P-Yds YPA
Clark 50 26 311 4 3 0 0 6.2
Stokely 12 8 85 1 0 1 21 8.8
Total 62 34 396 5 3 1 21 6.7
To put the 6.7 YPA total in perspective, when Manning posted his league-leading 9.2 YPA in 2004, Stokley averaged 9.6 yards per attempt on 124 passes. When Stokley's YPA dropped to 8.3 on 69 passes in 2005, Manning's YPA dropped to 8.3. Stokley has been out for most of this season, and that is a large reason why Manning's YPA has dropped to 7.9 this year.
Clark may have been a mediocre No. 3 wide receiver, but things have gotten worse since his injury in the Philadelphia game a couple of weeks ago. The Colts have had to move TE Bryan Fletcher to the No. 3 spot.
Consequently, the tight end position has been eliminated from the passing game. Also, Fletcher is not as good as Clark as a No. 3 receiver. Even if the Colts are able to find a way around this weakness in the next few weeks, it is certainly something they will want to address in free agency next season.