A sure thing story
Used to be a guy the Boston papers called "Ten Grand Teddy".
Two or three times a year he'd show up at one of the dog tracks and bet $10,000 on a dog to show. Always on a Grade A featured race and always on a top dog who was running exrtremely well.
Massachusetts law requires tracks to pay at least $2.10 for a winning $2 wager so Teddy was betting $10K to win $500. He showed up with his $10K two or three times a year and won every time. Nobody knew who he was but the papers always reported it.
And then one day his dog didn't break so well and got into some trouble on the turn and finished off the board. Everybody at the track that day who cashed a show ticket on that race got a nice little bonus at the window. Never heard of Teddy again.
The story is true. The lesson is you're going to win most of these type of bets. Maybe even a whole lot of them in a row. But not all of them, no matter how good the bet looks.
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