Re: The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down
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Trying some values, for kicking to be better:
X = 1.00, OT > 55.5%
X = 0.99, OT > 56.8%
X = 0.98, OT > 58.1%
X = 0.97, OT > 59.5%
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I would think OT would be that high for a team that overcomes a 14 point deficit late in the game
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I would also like to point out that if a team is 56.8% to win in OT, the chances of making an 2pt go up as well. Letting conversion success be C:
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a valid point and interesting externality, which does indeed show this question is much more complicated when moved to a real world situation as opposed to the assumptions in the OP that makes the decision obvious.
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