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Old 02-07-2006, 12:22 PM
DMBFan23 DMBFan23 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: > Brady
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Default Re: Hand against DeathDonkey

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imo if you are calling the river, you are beat.

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What does he have? I don't think Chris bluffs all that often, but I really don't think he has a pair very often given his flop/turn play. So I felt like the river was a tossup but since I couldn't put him on many pairs I liked a check better.

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I like checking way better than betting, but I wonder about calling.

couldnt he easily have a pair, something like A9s or even A8s/87s? the important thing is what he puts you on. when you c/r the flop, you have a pair+ or maybe an OESD. even if A high might be in your checkraising range (shouldnt be IMO against his MP1 open, maybe against his button open) it wouldnt be in your cool-calling range PF. when the T hits, he's gotta figure you for SOME kind of pair - it'd be easy for you to have something like T9s, JTs, etc - and if you DID have an OESD on the flop, it paired on the turn or improved to a straight...so he has to call the turn knowing you have at least a pair. he'd fold AK/KQ at this point (I hope) and probably raise an overpair either on the flop or turn, so that's out most of the time (the trend lately hasn't been to wait till the river, not sure if that's how DD plays). I think he would have to release a pocket pair like 66-44 to a turn bet on that board.

that leaves his turn calling range as something like AJ-KJ for hands you beat, and suited connectors that have a pair+ (87s, JTs, etc) as hands that have you beaten. if he would raise the turn even with these weaker pairs then it makes your river play a much easier check-call, but if he'd call his pairs on the turn (with outs, afraid of a 3-bet, wants to showdown cheap, wants to string you along, any number of reasons...) I always seem to favor check-folding in spots like these cause 2+2ers always expect 2+2ers to pay off everything

EDIT: the only thing that made me hesitate to post is the ever present question "what else might rob play this way" to which I have no answer
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