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The NCAA and the NFL have similar statistics for the success rate of two-point conversions and extra points. In the NFL the figures are 43% for the two-point conversion and 94% for the extra point, while in the NCAA the figures are 43.5% and 93.8% (Mallory & Nehlan, 2004). I’ll use the 43% and 94% figures for most examples in this paper, and will also develop the general formulas to show when the “go for two first” strategy is best. I’ll assume initially that the two sides have equal chances of winning the overtime, and will then extend the analysis to consider the more general case of what to do if, for example, the coaching staff believes that they have a higher or lower chance of winning in the overtime.
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I Googled "NFL, statistics, two-point conversions" and got the above from a
site which was coincidentally supporting this exact same argument that Sklansky brought up. The reason that the XP% the other poster found is so much higher than this figure may be that it doesn't account for bad snaps or blocked attempts which would lower the overall percentage significantly.
I've wondered myself many times why coaches don't go for two in this situation, although I've always assumed that the 2-point conversion percentage was closer to 50% than it is. Still though, it seems like a trivially simple concept.