Re: Tricky turn
If we take super-passives pf 3bet to mean JJ+ AK, AQs here's how the combos break down:
JJ: 0 combinations, 3 jacks accounted for
QQ: 6 combinations, going to check behind 100% I'd say
KK: 3 combinations, bets 100%
AA: 3 combinations, bets 75%?
AK: 9 combinations, bets 75%?
AQs: 3 combinations, checks behind 100%
Hands we are ahead of:
QQ (6)
AA (3)
AK (9)
AQs (3)
Total: 21
Hands that bet(weighted): 6*0+ 3*.75 + 9*.75 + 3*0 = 9 that bet, 12 that check.
Now, if fishy 3rd player calls any number of bets 75%, and folds to any bets 25%, we get this for c/r vs bet (assuming pf3 always calls 1 or 2 bets and never folds on the turn, pretty safe IMO)
EV of Bet when ahead: 1bb *1 + 1bb * .75 = +1.75 BB
EV of c/r when ahead: 12/21 *0 + 9/21(2bb + 2bb*.75) => 0+ .43*3.5 = ~+1.5BBs.
This ignores the occasional worst-case where villain has KK or fishy hit a straight or something and we lose an extra BB, so going for a c/r with these assumptions is actually a bit worse than it appears.
Surf
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