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Old 12-04-2006, 06:39 PM
fslexcduck fslexcduck is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: brooklyn
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Default Re: bullets vs cts, river action?

lucky,

first i disagree that this is not a flush draw usually. i think it's a smartly played combo draw almost all the time, specifically a pair plus draw. jkkk is clearly strong so cts has no reaso nto raise but he gets odds to call. so check/fold is best.

even if you think he has a K a lot of the time, he will usually check that behind on the river when you check. so even if it's K 70% flush 30% if he only bluffs the K like 10% of the time (probably accurate if he really value called K on turn, no reason he doesnt think it's good now), it's still a clear check/fold situation. (30% v 7% will be all in, you're not getting 4 to 1, etc)

just because you feel you're usually winning in a spot (which i irrelevantly to my point disagree with) is NOT a reason not to fold.
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