[DcifrThs]

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pete, you are calling $50 with 700 already in the pot. You are a crazy person if you think you lose 30 cents on every dollar of immediate ev with 74o.

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$15 was just a guess that i made because i was asked for it, and i accept that it might be off by a fairly large margin.

i'd love to see some calculations or other reasoning that supports that calling here is +EV. everything i've read on the subject advocates folding. if anyone has any web links or can point me to a book or something, i'd appreciate it.

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i'm sure youd idn't mean to state the bold part above in such certain terms.

the problem is that we have a severe lack of empirical evidence for 2 reasons, 1) it doesn't happen so often to be getting 15:1 in the blinds closing the action, and 2) it doesn't happen so often that people (who keep stats) play 74o from the big blind.

therefore, the only thing we have to rely on is our logic, other people's thoughts, and our experience.

as such, and as im sure you approach all problems like this, we start with the extremes.

would you play T2o here for a raise getting 15:1 closing the action? ... imo, no. doesn't take much to see that it's a losing play despite the immediate odds.

would you play 74s here for a raise getting 15:1 closing the action? ... imo, yes. and you'd be jumping out of your chair in excitement to get your money in.

would you play 76o here for a raise getting 15:1 closing the action?... imo, yes. now this is more arguable if you are very strongly positioned on your 74o fold here b/c somewhere between 74s and 74o there is a line that you draw. where do you draw that line?

if you play 76o here (which i think is +ev), then you would have to assume that the 2 kicker change and the # of straights you can make drop the value of the hand below zero. now if you think you dont make money calling with either hand, where DO you start calling?

given the above, i think it is definitely way closer than you think it is. i'd play 76o there and i think 75o is probably +ev as well. given that 74o is either very close to ev on either side and your decision should rest with the skill and hand ranges of the other players and table conditions.

here, we have a few posters who did not choose to call 2 cold. how does that affect our spot ehre?

well imo it makes it both more likely we have kicker problems (b/c 75o etc. are more likely to be out) but it also increases our relative equity to the other hands since their ranges are far far wider than normal...(i.e. almost all of them did the same thing pf that you did "me post, he post, he post, he post, me CALL!")

i think the equity argument outweighs the kicker argument (since we are unlikely to be playing here w/ 1 pair).

therefore, if 74o is CLOSE to +ev (small -ev to small +ev) it is made slightly more positive ev here in this particular spot.

therefore, i would be fine with a call in this spot.

Barron