[andyfox]

Sports is a very conservative milieu. Much of the baseball "book," for example, was "written," by John McGraw in an era when runs weren't scored in nearly the same numbers that they are now and almost all of it, therefore, is wrong for today's game. When Bill James first presented the math to a major league general manager, his comment was the paperwork would make a good doorstop. He didn't understand it and didn't want to understand it. So I don't doubt it when you say, as you did in another thread, that up until a few years ago (when the sabermaticians started to have some influence) you would have been the greatest baseball manager ever. Hell, I think I would have been it.

On the psychological deflation issue, I think there might be the opposite effect if the team is successful with the first two point conversion. The players might say to themselves, "All right, we're playing to WIN, not for a tie! This guy [the coach] has COJONES!" (Since they probably won't know the math either, they'd see it as a ballsy decision, rather than a logical one.) That might well inspire them to score the second touchdown more often than they would if they went for one.