Re: The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down
Since I don't think anyone has posted the complete solution to this example using David's assumptions I thought I would take the liberty. You need to multiply the probabilities for each instance. Fellas, this is why God created spreadsheets.
Go for Two the first TE
2 on the first, 1 on the second, win .4116 W
2 on the first, miss the kick, win in OT .0042 W
same as above lose in OT .0042 L
0 on the first, 2 on the second win in OT .1218 W
same as above, lose in OT .1218 L
O on the first, O on the second, lose .3364 L
total win .5376
total lose .4624
A similar calculation for going for the tie and only going for two if you miss the first kick gives
Win: .4844
Lose .5156
The math for kicking the extra point on the first TD and going for 2 on the second to win or tie gives:
Win: .4158
Lose: .5842
|