Re: One that I didn\'t horribly botch, probably!
alright kids, its time for school.
lets take a look at his hand range here:
preflop, i raise 3handed, fish calls, and he overcalls. JJ and up are now out of his range. he's got a hand with potential, but not one big enough to squeeze.
on the flop, he c/r's. relative position would dictate such a move if he wants the fish in the pot, but the fish didn't oblige. so, he likes his hand here at least somewhat, as he'd rarely c/r such a flop out of position with air. we can put him on a set, 2 pair (only J9), maybe a big jack, or a draw of some sort. however, 99 is unlikely because i have a 9 also, JJ is unlikely because he didnt reraise preflop, so if he's got a set its most likely 33. also, many of his possible combo draws are blocked by my holdings, so his draws are going to be 8-9 outers (from his perspective).
3-betting this flop kinda sucks in my opinion, for a few reasons:
1) he won't fold many better hands
2) i'll often end up on the bad side of a 60/40 or worse "coinflip" with a better hand.
3) i've got position and there are still stacks behind, why not take advantage of it?
now the turn comes, pairing the 3, its a great card for me.
1) 33 is that much less likely now, and really theres only 1 combination each of 99 and 33 he could have for a winning boat/quads.
2) it counterfeits J9.
Now, given stack sizes, and the fact that i could easily shove here with AA-QQ, or a boat myself, he's gotta fold almost all of his range. If he makes a big call with AJ or something, well thats alright with me. such calls won't be profitable in the long run, and i still have outs.
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