[kdotsky]

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Speaking of coaches in general, I think this is probably true. However, that doesn't explain situations like the one David posted about, where it is very clear what the correct move is, and yet every singe coach gets it wrong every single time. Surely somebody has explained this to one coach or owner, right?!?!?!

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I was thinking that too. The basic math involved has been around way longer than the game. I do not believe that every owner and coach choose to ignore it or are too stupid to understand it, especially when there is so much to gain by winning more often. Someone would try it out eventually, it would work, and the practice would spread.

This leads me to think that maybe there is, in fact, more to the game situation than it appears, or that coaches do avoid highly visible and risky plays for personal reasons.