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Old 11-30-2006, 07:29 AM
PairTheBoard PairTheBoard is offline
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Default Re: The Two Point Conversion When Eight Down

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They always choose the "passive" play (e.g. not going for the two points). This type of mistake is hardly noticed (punting doesn't make a good highlight). "Going for it", on the other hand, is exciting and makes it to the highlight real -- so if it backfires it gets a lot of attention.

So coaches make the mistakes that don't get attention, and then can blame the game on whatever didn't go great, e.g. turnovers. In a way, they may be maximizing their own $EV. A highlight-real backfire loses them a lot more (in terms of long term compensation) than a mistake nobody notices.

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In this particular case, the problem for the image concious coach is that he will look bad a large part of the time. More than half the time they will miss the two pointer. And then they will usually not score again. Instead of a simple loss caused by not scoring again after a normal 1 point conversion, people will talk about the unconventional decision to go for the missed Two. Going for Two only makes the coach look good when they make it, 42% of the time, and then score again which is unlikely. It makes him look bad at least 58% of the time when they likely don't score again.

PairTheBoard
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