[Dementia]

David,

I don't think this applies for every team. What if they've been dominated up front all day and aren't controlling the line of scrimmage as they should be? If they can move the ball down the field and score at the 2:00 mark, they ought to just go ahead and take the FG - it's still a 1 possession game. Would your opinion change if the team had no timeouts and would be forced to attempt an onside kick? It would sure suck to drive the ball down the field again only to fail to complete another two pt conversion.

Even if the math justifies these slightly unorthodox playcallings, there is a danger in slipping too far into the "Mike Martz" syndrom where instead of pounding the ball up the middle on 4th & short you try some overly sophisticated double reverse and it ends up backfiring. There is more leeway for trickier play in defensive schemes imo, when the game is at a critical junction even if you have some minute mathematical edge you're better off not risking it and executing the simple & proven play.

Assuming you will make it into the endzone twice, going for it sends the wrong message to your team whom you are supposed to have faith in to either drive the ball in OT or make a big defensive stop, not to mention the heat that will undoubtedly be put on you from the GM, fans, and likely your players during the week should your brilliant idea spit in your face.

Btw on the subject of NFL, did you miss my question in the other ask me forum?