[El Diablo]

David,

"I changed my mind about doing the calculation. Anybody on this forum who can't do it should be ashamed of themselves.
Assume a two point attempt is 42%, a one point attempt is 98%, overtime is a 50-50 proposition, and there is time for one more score at best."

One point way, you win 48% of the time.

Two point way, you outright win 18% of the time pre-OT.
you go to OT 48% and win 24% of the time
you lose outright in reg 34%

Which says go for one point.

OK, it's late, so for your amusement I'll post this here and come back in the morning to laugh with you all at whatever trivial math error I made and be ashamed as you've instructed.