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Old 11-25-2006, 07:25 AM
sharpie sharpie is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: 35/25.2
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Default Re: 99 blind battle, probably very standard

I would cap PF.

Whether or not to raise the flop is an interesting question. I believe raising the flop is best against a worse hand that will calldown. He looks like the type to calldown with ace high hoping you have a flush draw, and he'll never fold a pocket pair if you raise the flop. If you raise the turn he's more likely to fold, but this isn't too bad if he has 6 outs. You make 1.5 instead of 3BB if he would've called down a flop raise, but his outs are probably worth close to 1BB. Also sometimes when we raise the flop he'll just fold the flop or check/fold the turn when he otherwise would've bet/folded the turn if we just called, so we make less than .5BB by raising the flop when we have the best hand.

Against a better hand I also think raising the flop is best if our alternative is putting 2.5 bets in. Let's say he 3 bets the flop with a better hand and we decide to peel and fold the turn UI. This saves us 1BB. However if we called to the river we would get a shot at 2 outs, and even if we raise the turn he's less likely to 3 bet better hands, so we don't really save a whole BB. Also he'll sometimes just call the flop to check/raise the turn, in that case we don't save much at all.

I think the main question is how often he pushes us off a worse hand, assuming we're folding the turn UI. With the limited read it's a tough question to answer. Against a LAG I think it's a clear flop call and against a straightforward guy I'd lean towards raising the flop. I'm babbling but I'd call the flop here with the limited read.
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