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Old 11-21-2005, 10:53 AM
fnord_too fnord_too is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: February made me shiver
Posts: 9,200
Default Re: Kinsman1josh / Fobol on Party 10/20 Stud8

Maybe the games are just really incredible right now. When I have sat in the 10/20, there have been some real donators stopping by.

Also, perhaps he is a very strong heads up and short handed player. Those games ocilate between short and full the few time I have played. I definitely recall playing HU with someone decent (but whom I think I had an edge on HU as he made a few general HU mistakes) and every 5-15 minutes someone would stop by and drop a 10-20BB buy in on the table three way and leave. I really hope I can play in this game more and get some more data points.

FWIW, I think I have seen the mentioned guy and have about the same mental note on him as everyone else: Plays decently but occasionally flakes out and plays a hand he should not and goes to far with it.

I will watch him more in the future since everyone says he is on a huge upswing right now to figure out if there is some method to his madness. Honestly, I figured him for a small loser to decent winner depending on the table make up. He may in fact be a big winner who just makes these crazy weak loose plays for advertising. I have been meaning to write a big post on advertising in the psych section, but what it boils down to is that, from reading some very respected psych papers, I think it may be more effective than most people think. Specifically, there are two theories which lead me to believe this. The first is anchoring, after an oppinion is formed and contrary information comes in, the oppinin may shift, but almost always in too small of steps. The second is, IIRC, representativeness. If one can recall certain parts of a population better, they will tend to think the distribution of the population is skewed in the direction of the part they recall easier. For instance, you read off a list of 100 actors and actresses to someone, 50 of each. The actresses are somewhat more famous than the actors, so the person you are reading it to will know, and probably recall that they were on the list, better. If you ask the person for the proportion of actors and actresses, they will tend to estimate that there were more actresses on the list. In poker, it is easier to spot and remember bad play, so a couple of bad plays, especially early, and really affect oppinions.
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