[Vern]

I at least pot it pre-flop, but that is only $0.10 more. I don't think that makes a difference, likely neither would $1.50. If you play tight/aggressive, you need to make all your raises the same so you cannot go harder because you have AA or you will get chewed up with your lesser raises.

As played, I raise pot on the flop with an over pair, so $8.50 to your 9. Again, I like to stay consistent with my psb's. When he pushes I would tank. What percent of the time does he have to have a draw to make it correct to call.

Assumptions, he either has a straight (1) or he has a two card flush draw(2). I Ignored 99, TT, KK because I think the average player would raise these UTG although it is possible for 99 to limp. I also ignored the straight draw because I don’t think it is likely a straight draw does this on a 2 flush board unless they also have the flush draw and are therefore covered under (2) above.

In 1, you win ~7.5% of the time so your EV is
Win%*Pot-Lose%Call$
(0.075*35.35)-(0.925*15.85)=-$12.01=EV1 the EV when he has the straight

In 2, you win 60% of the time so your EV is
(0.60*35.35)-(0.925*15.85)=+$14.87=EV2 the EV when he is on a draw

So where is your break even point? X is the chance he is on a draw

((1-X)*EV1)+(X*EV2)=0

Solve for X

EV1-(X*EV1)+(X*EV2)=0
(X*EV2)-(X*EV1)=-EV1
X*(EV2-EV1)=-EV1
X=-EV1/(EV2-EV1)
X=EV1/(EV1-EV2)
X=-12.01/(-12.01-14.87)
X=-12.01/-26.88=45% on a draw

So if you think the normal player could do this 45%+ with a flush draw, you have to call. Generally I don’t credit lower flush draws with playing this way. We have the ace, so we have to decide how often the Qx[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would do this, with the extreme being the QT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the 2 card second nut flush draw, middle pair and gutshot straight draw. That hand is actually a favorite to you as well, 53:47 for an X of -12.01/-20.22=60% if you determine the only likely hands to play this are a two card diamond draw with the Queen (second nut flush) and a pair (Tens).

Without the time to do all that math, I did figure the chance I need himed to be doing this on a draw at about 50% which the math seems to support between any two card diamond draw (45%) and just the QT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw (60%)

I wish you had stopped the post after his three bet on the flop. I think I would evaluate that I am behind and drawing to ~2 outs and fold without a better read. I cannot say that with confidence because I know he had the straight and you were drawing to your backdoor flush and straight which were your ~2 outs.