[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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7) If Obama runs, all bets are off. However, whether he runs or not, I would be unsurprised to see him be named the VP candidate.

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I think Obama is actually quite unlikely to be the Veep nominee. Let's look at the potential Democratic tickets.

Clinton-Obama. Unless the Dems are reaaaaaaaaaly confident based on polling and focus-grouping this ticket, I don't think they're going to nominate a woman and a black man in the same election. Sorry, but it's the truth. You can find a lot of quotes from Democratic insiders that say as much.

Edwards-Obama. Here you run into the Lloyd Bentsen problem: you don't want the Veep candidate to outshine the presidential candidate. This is particularly problematic with Edwards, whom IMO has problems with appearing sufficiently assertive. But it would also be a problem with Bayh, et. al. because of the "charisma gap". Richardson-Obama runs into the minority problem. Clark-Obama is a well balanced ticket, I guess, but I don't know how serious Clark's candidacy is.

Gore-Obama, e.g. the Progressive Wet Dream. Maybe too progressive, although it's also a ticket that would get absolutely absurd turnout among the base. The thing is, I don't think both Obama and Gore run for the nomination, and I think Obama probably gets first dibs on making his choice. But I think you could see sort of a quid-pro-quo here, where Obama doesn't run, gets behind Gore, and becomes his Veep.

Also, we should keep in mind that Mark Warner remains an extremely attractive Veep candidate for the Dems, unless there was some underlying reason that he withdrew from Presidential consideration.