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Old 11-09-2006, 02:35 AM
beetman beetman is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 560
Default Re: *** Official Arbitrage Posting Thread : 11/06 - 11/12 ***

You may find many arbs every day, but do you find them for significant amounts? I find many bets each day which I could arb if I were so inclined, but invariably they're bets for $200, $300, $500 limits where I'm not able to get down enough money on the soft line to make it worth arbing.

In any case, the point isn't so much that "people post arbs." If you post an arb between Pinnacle and Cascade, or TheGreek and CRIS, it doesn't really matter. The point is that the majority of the arbs that are posted involve soft lines from low-limit books. If these books get pounded with one way action on their soft lines, it could encourage them to sharpen their lines, or worse, if a lot of people won betting their soft lines, the book could go under. As I stated in an earlier post, a lot of the posted arbs involve SIA lines and their lines aren't nearly as soft now as they were several years ago.

Here's a simple, final example. During the World Cup, I found a book that had extremely slow moving lines and made tons of bets there, arbing part of a lot of the bets. The bets placed at that book did extremely well and I won a substantial amount of money there. I guess that book wasn't prepared for that large a win outside of football season, because it took me quite a while to get paid. I can only imagine how long it would have taken if a lot of other people had bet the same arbs and had won a lot of money there. If I posted those arbs somewhere, I'd be screwed.
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