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Old 11-07-2006, 02:00 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: pocket 4s in a turbo

I worked it out and believe now that pushing is better but if villian had around 800 chips then stop and go would be the best choice . .

If you push all in and he calls , you will be at best a coin flip . Lets say you have a 50 % chance of winning the flip .

Ev= 900*0.5-850*0.5= 25 . That is , you win half of your bb back .

Now if you use the stop and go play watch what happens to your Ev .

You call an additional 130 which means there is 360 in the pot and villian has 720 chips remaining .

Ev(s and g | he folds ) = 360*(2/3)=240 Since if he doesn't hit and he has two overcards , he doesn't have the correct odds to continue .

Ev(s and g | he calls ) = 850*1/3 = 283.33 (283>240)

I've also simplified the problem because there will be times when you hit your set on the flop when villian calls , and there will be times when you suck out when you have the worst of it .

My intuition was slightly off but the decision is still a close one .
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