[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
There have been no rebuttals to my statement, only dismissals of the relevance of the history of 6th year administrations, erroneous claims that winning the House and not the Senate is "huge", and guesses at the outcome of the election that appear to be based on week old polls.

Deleted, but let me try to put this year's senate races in perspective by offering actual statistics about 6th year midterms (6YM).

Since WW2, there have been 7 presidents elected to a second term of office: Truman, Ike, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush. Truman and Johnson didn't serve full first terms, and Nixon didn't serve a full second, but I'm trying to be thorough here. The midterm elections in their second terms were in 50, 58, 66, 74, 86, 98 and 06.

In 50:
President: Truman, D
Senate before election: 54D, 42R
Contested seats: 23D, 13R (+10D)
Net Gain: +5R
Senate after election: 49D, 47R

In 58:
President: Ike, R
Senate before election: 50D, 48R
Contested seats: 13D, 21R, +2 open in Alaska (+8R)
Net Gain: +15D, 2 from open elections in Alaska
Senate after election: 65D, 35R

In 66:
President: Johnson, D
Senate before election: 67D, 33R
Contested seats: 20D, 15R (+5D)
Net Gain: +3R
Senate after election: 64D, 36R

In 74:
President: Nixon, R
Senate before election: 56D, 42R, 1 Independent, 1 Conservative
Contested seats: 20D, 14R (+6D)
Net Gain: +4D
Senate after election: 60D, 38R, 1I, 1C

In 86:
President: Reagan, R
Senate before election: 47D, 53R
Contested seats: 12D, 22R (+10R)
Net Gain: +8D
Senate after election: 55D, 45R

In 98:
President: Clinton, D
Senate before election: 45D, 55R
Contested seats: 18D, 16R (+2D)
Net Gain: no change
Senate after election: 45D, 55R

Things to note:
1. The prez's party never gained senate seats.
2. In all but 2 years, the president's party had more seats contested.
3. 1986 was the only time since 1918 that senate control switched hands in a 6YM.

So, what should our expectations be for 2006? What would a historically normal result be?

In 06:
President: Bush, R
Senate before election: 45D, 55R
Contested seats: 18D, 15R (+3D)


Well, if we say "what portion of the prez party's contested seats are lost?", we get:

1950: 22%
1958: 62%
1966: 15%
1974: 29%
1986: 36%
1998: 0%

For an average of 27% loss. Given that 15R seats are in play this year, a normal result in this very small sample would be a Dem gain of 4 seats, for a 49D, 51R Senate. A gain of 5D seats, which would still leave the Republicans in control of the Senate, would be a + outcome.

So, there's your rebuttal. You're an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]


Nice, Iron is doing a great job in the forum, as expected.

Now try talking about the House, which is what I was clearly talking about, because Ive already said the Dems arent taking the Senate. Personal attack deleted