[elindauer]

Hi Mason,

I don't have a lot of experience to draw on in this NL situation, so my intuition may be off. I do, however, have a fair amount of experience in math, and it seems to me that your analysis here is very shaky.

You are essentially making some hand waving arguments that show the expectation to be very close. A $15 edge for the AQs would mean that of the current $315 pot, the AQs will win 52% of the pot, with the jacks taking down 48%.

Now, you admit that your example is flawed, and that true NL strategy is much more complicated. What happens if the jacks frequently check behind on the flop when an overcard hits? A huge part of your calculation assumes that the AQs makes a good chunk of change every time it connects, with the jacks drawing almost dead.

So what does your example prove? Isn't it perfectly plausible that by tweaking the assumptions just a bit, it's going to go from 52/48 in favor of the AQs to 51/49 in favor of the jacks?

So instead, here's a different argument.


According to twodimes, the pot equity should be divided up 54/46 in favor of the jacks. I'll speculate that two perfect playing, game-theory optimized equal opponents should divide the pot up in about this way. Further, the jacks have position, so they should be able to make a little more. Therefore, the jacks are better.


-Eric