[Mark1808]

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I have elaborated in detail. I am simply waiting for an explanation from Mason, David, or Ed as to why Mason is mocking his opponents because when given the choice to make either $40 or $15, they think it is better to make $40.

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I WAS WRONG!! BUT I AM STILL RIGHT!

As Diablo properly pointed out to me in a PM the Jack could hit the turn or river. The chance that Ace or Q hits the flop with no J and J hits turn or river tips the balance 40 -15 for JJ, as has been stated many times and I was too hard headed to see that MY PROBABILITIES WERE OFF.

But there is a critical differance between JJ and AQ on the turn and river when they don't improve.

When AQ does not improve, they have nothing! When AQ improves and is ahead of JJ, JJ still has something making extracting future bets a possibility!

What can really happen if Ace or Q flops and NO J hits the flop turn or river? What if AQ bets a small amount turn and river, like $100? Will JJ call? If so, AQ is better! $67 to -16. Even $50 turn and river bets make AQ better 41 to 14.

Bet sizes are likely to be higher if AQ is ahead. If J checks turn and AQ bets JJ is likely to fold. But not 100% of the time like AQ! Not with players I have seen. And even a small amount of money that AQ could squeeze out of JJ on the turn and river would tip the balance.

I set the percentages and win / loss possibilities in a spread sheat and played around with the differant turn and river betting scenarios. You will see that this is what tips the scale in favor of AQ.

The fact that that JJ will likely call turn and river bets when behind as opposed to AQ makes AQ the higher EV in this example.

When AQ is ahead on the flop and J hits the turn or river, it is still easy for AQ to shut down...why? Because with the $150 reraise if the Q flops AQ still fears AA, KK or QQ and if the Ace flops AQ still fears AK.

Simply put even though JJ is a better hand, because of pot odds and the ease of getting away from the hand when behind, as opposed to JJ, AQ is preferable hand.